Global Political Outlook Q4 2021-2022: Covid Fall-Out, Geopolitical Posturing To Sustain Tensions

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Key View

  • Several major economies will be gearing up for elections in Q4 2021 and 2022 in which incumbents are likely to face severe backlashes due to the fall-out from the Covid-19 pandemic; the risk will be especially acute in Latin America.
  • The US Biden administration will continue attempting to build an international coalition to counterbalance China, and we anticipate greater tensions in 2022 as the US mid-term elections and Communist Party of China’s five-yearly congress approach.
  • We expect the victory of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in the German federal election on September 26

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